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Former Goldman Sachs top manager and macro investor Raul Pal estimated that the probability of Balaji Srinivasan winning in a bet in which the ex-CTO Coinbase has staked on Bitcoin reaching $1 million over the next 90 days.
Srinivasan offered a bet to economist James Medlock, who had doubts about the transition of the US economy into a state of hyperinflation.
According to the terms, if bitcoin does not reach $1 million by June 17, Medlock will win $1 million and receive his collateral of 1 BTC. In the same way, if the first cryptocurrency reaches the specified milestone by this date or earlier, Srinivasan will win 1 BTC and return $1 million.
In fact, the ex-CTO of Coinbase is counting on a scenario for the world to return to the gold standard, in which the role of the precious metal will go to bitcoin. The impetus for this could be the purchases of the first cryptocurrency by individual US states like Texas or Florida, as well as individual countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, he explained.
“It will all happen very quickly once people check what I am saying and see that Fed lied about how much money is in the banks. All dollar holders will be destroyed.” the expert warned.
The dispute between Medlock and Srinivasan flared up against the backdrop of the collapse of American credit institutions and, later, the Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse.
Turbulence in the sector led to the launch of swap lines in US dollars with the participation of the world’s leading central banks. Separately, the Fed also set up a $25 billion Term Bank Financing Program (BTFP).
Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang saw the actions of the Fed as the actual launch of quantitative easing. The latter is characterized by a flood of liquidity in the capital markets, which tends to drive up asset prices and inflation.
“yield curve control”
“bank term funding program”
“coordinated central bank action to enhance liquidity”
the english language has so many synonyms for BRRR https://t.co/rqVl70DQeh
— Matt Huang (@matthuang) March 19, 2023
In an interview, Pal agreed with Srinivasan’s rationale, but considered the success of the bet unbelievable.
The expert drew attention to the growth of bitcoin by 40% since the origins of the current banking crisis. The macro investor attributed the momentum to a growing awareness of the fragility of the financial system, pushing investors towards parallel alternatives like cryptocurrencies.
Pal noted a direct correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and bitcoin, with the latter rising during QE and falling during QT tightening. The former Goldman Sachs executive predicted “shocking power” for digital gold in the near term, but pointed to $50,000 as a cap on growth over the next 12 months.
“In him [Сринивасана] zero point zero tenth chance of being right, but […] he’s spending a million bucks, two million bucks promoting an important concept.”— concluded a macro investor.
Recall that in March, the founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Yoon Ju, and the analyst of rektcapital stated that bitcoin was moving into a bullish phase.
Earlier, Ryan Selkis, the founder and CEO of the analytical company Messari, predicted the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $100,000 within 12 months.
Is there fuel for a Bitcoin rally in 2023?
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