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The expert analyzed the situation on the market and told how it could change in the short term
The opinions of experts may not coincide with the position of the editors. “RBC-Crypto” does not give investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.
On Sunday, March 19, bitcoin is trading at $27.3 thousand, over the past seven days, its price has risen and fallen by 32%. The specialist analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin rate for the next seven days.
“Buy expectations, sell facts”
Financial Analyst BitRiver Vladislav Antonov
The week from March 13 to March 19 turned out to be very successful for the first cryptocurrency. In six incomplete days, bitcoin has risen in price by 24.06%, to $27,299, and by 65.16% since the beginning of the year.
The growth of the BTC/USDt pair began from the beginning of the week against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve taking anti-crisis measures to stop the banking crisis in the US, and then accelerated against the backdrop of a weakening dollar after the publication of the inflation report for March. Consumer price data changed Fed rate expectations.
On Tuesday (March 14), buyers took advantage of US data to break protective stops on shorts above $25,250, but failed to gain a foothold. When the level of $26,386 was reached, buyers began to partially cover long positions. During the corrective phase, the bitcoin rate fell to $23,896.
At the end of the week, the demand for risky assets grew on the news about the assistance to troubled banks in the US and Western Europe. Credit Suisse will receive support from the SNB. A group of 11 largest US banks announced the allocation of $ 30 billion to First Republic Bank to maintain depositor confidence in the banking system. Among them, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will contribute $5 billion each, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will each contribute $2.5 billion.
Against the backdrop of the recovery of the S&P 500 index and the decline of the dollar index, the BTC/USDt pair updated its high at $27,756. Buyers finally consolidated above the $25,250 level, which had been strong resistance for a long time.
Until March 22, a moderate strengthening of bitcoin against the US dollar is expected. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate increase by 25 bp to 5.00% is 68%, and 32% that the rate will remain at 4.75% per annum. I believe that the speech of J. Powell will have the greatest impact on the market.
Since bitcoin is strengthening before the US Federal Reserve meeting, after J. Powell’s speech, it can update the maximum and then move into a correctional phase. With a high degree of probability, the rule “buy expectations, sell facts” will work. According to BitRiver estimates, the road to the $33-34 thousand zone is open for buyers. The $30 thousand level is psychological and may not withstand.
If there is no sharp correction after the US Federal Reserve meeting, then after a short consolidation (about two weeks), it will be possible to storm the $34 thousand level. Powell should give a green light to crypto investors.
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