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Forecasts of financial markets are the private opinion of their authors. The current analysis is not a guide to trading. ForkLog is not responsible for the results of the work that may occur when using the trading recommendations from the submitted reviews.
Vadim Shovkun, a practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project, talks about the current situation on the market.
As mentioned in the previous review, the price has received a fairly deep correction. Consider whether to wait for the achievement of new levels.
You need to pay attention to the vertical volume for March 13. The surge is comparable only to the November dump. At the same time, the nature of the bar, which corresponds to this volume, can be characterized as the most bullish — in just one bar, the $22,500-23,800 flat was broken.
The next update of $25,200 happened quite impulsively. This mark is an important extreme point of the entire summer/autumn accumulation in 2022. The price not only updated this extremum once again and returned down in the format of a false stop loss a couple of days ago, but successfully fixed higher.
Data: Trading View.
It is also important that there is no high vertical volume on the four-eight-hour bars over the past few days, while the price is making new highs. This indicates the absence of a major seller at the moment, which would hold back the market.
The general nature of the renewal of the highs in recent months looks rather weak. The price clearly rests against the white ascending trend line and cannot break through it in any way. The likelihood of this is still low.
An important factor in the weakness of the medium-term growth is the breakdown of the ascending structure (Higher Low & Higher High). The market shouldn’t have gone under $20,000, even if only for a short time.
Above there is a powerful resistance of $28,500-31,000. Before it, ~ +10% from the current levels. At the same time, the price made +35% in just a few days. From the point of view of Risk / Reward, it is not worth waiting for growth from the current positions.
Data: Trading View.
The price has already made +35% from the recent Low, there is a large and powerful resistance $28,500-31,00 above. At the same time, the chance that the next attempt to grow will end with a breakdown of a month and a half uptrend after such a long run-up is low. It is logical to wait for a rollback to at least ~$25,200.
If the descent-correction is smooth, and the subsequent lateral movement lasts at least a week, then we should expect a new attempt to update the highs.
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