Bitcoin
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Analysts commented on the situation on the market and talked about possible scenarios for changing the price of the first cryptocurrency
The opinions of experts may not coincide with the position of the editors. “RBC-Crypto” does not give investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.
Experts interviewed by RBC-Crypto analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin rate in the near future.
“Don’t rush into big purchases”
Head of RBK Trading LTD Vladimir Chirpichinikov
What affects the price
There are quite a few factors that can affect BTC pricing, and almost all of them are interconnected.
Fundamental:
Inflation in the US and other leading economies of the world
US unemployment rate
Actions by the Fed and other global central banks: tight monetary policy can put significant pressure on sellers.
BTC halving in 2024. Usually, the growth of an asset begins about 8 months before the halving. Around this period, many crypto enthusiasts buy BTC.
Technical:
The main oscillators are leaving the oversold zone and divergence, starting to work out, which hints at the formation of a local bottom. The price is slowly approaching (in some cases it has already passed) to long moving averages.
Trend reversal patterns are also being worked out, a simple example would be the wholesale breaking of the falling wedge not only in BTC, but also in many altcoins.
Likely Scenarios
Under the most positive combination of circumstances, both fundamental and technical, the price of BTC will accumulate in the range of $20-25 thousand until the summer of 2023. At the end of the second and beginning of the third quarter, the price may rise above $30 thousand.
The pessimistic scenario would be an overbought market, when people start buying assets too early, a further increase in the rate above the target, and a strong labor market. Bankruptcies of large funds or exchanges may also contribute to this scenario. In this case, the price is able to rewrite the low and fall first to $14,000 and then to $10,000. But such a scenario is unlikely.
Possible strategies (based on scenarios)
For short-term and medium-term traders, it is recommended to pay special attention to risk management and trading volume.
For investors, it is recommended not to rush with large purchases of assets, wait for the price to drop and competently gain positions. When the price rises, do not buy BTC at local peaks, but wait for a trade or correction. It is also worth realistically assessing risks and being mentally prepared for portfolio drawdowns in a pessimistic scenario.
It must be remembered that after every winter comes a thaw. The fast-growing cryptocurrency industry is able to provide excellent income in the long run.
“Continued growth in the coming days”
Senior Analyst at Bestchange.ru Nikita Zuborev
What affects the price
The main factor that most investors of the crypto market consider is the natural four-year cyclical nature of the market associated with the Bitcoin halving. If we take this model as a basis, then the market is not yet ready for the start of a global uptrend and will be in a sideways movement in the coming months.
Also, over the past few years, there has been a noticeable correlation between the crypto market and the stock market, so it is indirectly worth relying on this factor in assessing future prospects. This week, a lot of reports from key companies in the US IT sector are being published, which may affect the behavior of investors. It is worth carefully monitoring this data in order to anticipate possible local trends in the coming weeks.
A moderately positive factor is the Spring Festival (the so-called “Chinese New Year”), historically during this period, Bitcoin showed growth closer to the end of the festivities. Therefore, based on the statistics for previous years, we can expect a moderately positive trend until February 9th.
It is worth considering the unpredictable factor of Elon Musk. The tweets of the billionaire often cause bright bursts of activity in the market with rapid growth in the first place for Dogecoin, but also for the entire market as a whole. Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict the behavior of the Mask.
Likely Scenarios
A positive outlook may be continued growth to a level of about $30 thousand, followed by fixation in the range of $25-30 thousand for the next few months. Anything can become an impulse – Musk’s tweet or positive news on the stock market, despite the absence of a clear predictability of these events, we assess the onset of any of them as quite probable.
An alternative scenario could be the return of the market to a global downtrend. This forecast relies more on long-term factors, so we should not expect a quick start to the fall. In our estimates, this is the most likely scenario, but even if it happens, Bitcoin will continue to be in the range of $19-23 thousand for at least another couple of weeks.
Only a new episode in the bankruptcy of FTX or bright criticism from big businessmen, like the same Elon Musk, can provoke a sharp resumption of the fall.
Possible strategies (based on scenarios)
In general, both main scenarios, despite the relative negative component, imply continued growth in the coming days, so we can consider buying assets as part of short-term speculation.
But you should carefully monitor the situation not only on the crypto market, but also on the news of the stock market, this will help build a short-term strategy with a little lead. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Musk’s Twitter and other outrageous opinion leaders.
If the exchange rate drops below $20,000, you should avoid buying because of the high risk of a possible transition to an uncontrollable fall.
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