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The analyst’s scenario provides for a 70% decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency in 2023 due to the switch of investor interest to gold
A further drop in the price of bitcoin by about 70% to $5,000 in 2023 is one of the “unexpected” scenarios that markets are underestimating, said Eric Robertsen, head of global research at Standard Chartered, according to Bloomberg. According to him, demand could switch from bitcoin, which is perceived by the market as a digital version of gold, to a real asset, which will lead to a 30% increase in the price of the precious metal.
This scenario assumes a halt in interest rate hikes as economies mount difficulties, as well as new bankruptcies in the crypto industry and a drop in investor confidence in digital assets, the expert believes. At the same time, he stressed that he does not make forecasts, but offers scenarios that are significantly beyond the current market consensus.
According to Robertsen, an unexpected scenario of growth in the value of gold due to the retreat of cryptocurrencies could lead to the price of the precious metal reaching $2.25 thousand per ounce. On December 5, the price of gold is at the level of $1.78 thousand, the maximum of this year was recorded on March 31 at around $1.94 thousand.
The crypto market may have even more problems ahead, the newspaper notes. About 94% of respondents to a Bloomberg MLIV Pulse poll believe that the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further crashes as years of affordable credit give way to a tougher market environment.
“Our base case is that most of the forced selling has ended, but investors may not be compensated for near-term market risk,” said Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at investment firm Fundstrat.
He pointed to continued uncertainty regarding Digital Currency Group, the parent company of crypto brokerage Genesis. Genesis lenders are looking for options to try and keep the brokerage from bankruptcy.
At the same time, Genesis customers do not waste time and turn to lawyers to file claims against the crypto platform. Its debt to customers is at least $1.8 billion.
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