The cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase of growth. What awaits the Bitcoin price in November?

Today, the ranking of top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization looks like this.

Dogecoin DOGE turned out to be the leader of growth on the scale of the week and the last day. She has 145 and 26 percent, respectively.

When will the key rate be raised?

According to Cointelegraph sources, a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) will be held on November 1-2, during which the next step in raising the base lending rate will be determined. So far, most experts agree that this round will be marked by a rate increase of 75 basis points or 0.75 percent. Accordingly, the changes will be the same as over the past few months.

The reading is in line with previous Fed rate hikes in September, July, and June, but markets will be watching for something else — subtle hints of a change in US quantitative tightening. The rate decision is due on Wednesday evening, along with an accompanying statement and economic forecasts.

Before the announcement of the results of the meeting, a popular crypto trader under the nickname IncomeSharks expects a short-term decline in the price of Bitcoin – it’s all about the formed double top pattern on the chart, that is, in fact, a certain figure on it. Then the coin can continue to grow, as shown in the screenshot below.

But analyst Kevin Swenson shared the exact opposite opinion. He believes that while the US Federal Reserve will not change its policy on the base rate, which means that the stock market is waiting for a new large-scale collapse.

Every time the stock market has risen in this downtrend, it has been in anticipation of a change in Fed policy. Recently, fears of higher inflation have been growing, which makes a change in the Fed’s course unlikely. Is the trend your friend? If so, stocks will fall again after the FOMC meeting.

Отметим, что рассчитывать на какое-либо предсказание из изложенных не стоит, поскольку они могут банально не сбыться. Всё же на рынке криптовалют огромное количество инвесторов, каждый из которых действует в соответствии со своими уникальными потребностями и ощущениями. Соответственно, искать здесь логику и надеяться на резонный вариант — порой бессмысленно.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicator puts the probability of a 75 basis point hike at 81 percent. 19 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike. Accordingly, there is no talk of a larger increase in advance.

В ценах активов на рынках уже "заложено" повышение именно на 75 базисных пунктов, считают эксперты. То есть в таком случае индустрия действительно может пережить небольшой спад, однако затем вернуться к росту — равно как и традиционные активы. Если же ставку повысят на 0.5 процента, можно ожидать бурного роста акций и криптовалют, хотя подобное изменение маловероятно.

Where is Bitcoin resistance?

The close of the previous 1-week candle on the Bitcoin chart shows a break of the $20k level on this scale, an event that has been expected since the beginning of October.

But on the scale of a 1-day chart, the price of the main cryptocurrency rested against the moving average with a period of 100. We wrote more about the principle of operation of this technical analysis indicator in our previous article.

Possible scenarios for the growth or fall of BTC were published by cryptanalyst Mark Cullen. According to him, so far the price of the cryptocurrency continues to walk in a narrow channel to the line of $21,000. Given the encouraging results of the FOMC meeting, this level of resistance may well be broken. The main thing is the presence of a good fundamental catalyst for growth, one of which could be the aforementioned reversal in the policy of the US Federal Reserve.

До заседания FOMC осталось всего пару суток — вероятно, трейдерам стоит готовиться именно к этому событию, ведь оно же и определит направление движения крипторынка на следующие несколько недель.

Bitcoins are becoming less liquid

Recently, bitcoins, which had been without movement for up to ten years, began to periodically move to different wallets again. However, in general, the supply of BTC is becoming less liquid. In other words, more and more coins accumulate in the wallets of long-term investors who are not subject to short-term market fluctuations.

According to the analytical platform Coin Metrics, the percentage of transferred BTC over the past year is at an all-time low.

Another graph published by the Glassnode platform. It shows an increase in the illiquid volume of BTC against the backdrop of the cryptocurrency price.

Доминирование долгосрочных инвесторов в удержании биткоинов хорошо для среднесрочного роста цены BTC — благодаря этому каждый день на биржах продаётся меньше биткоинов. К тому же на руку быкам играет сокращение доступного предложения Биткоина.

The panic of crypto investors is gradually receding

The Fear and Greed Index from the Alternative portal showed a noticeable increase towards the end of this month. Today it is at the level of 30 points out of 100, which corresponds to the fear and caution of most traders. Recall that for most of October, extreme fear reigned in the market.

Overall, Bitcoin is in a much more promising position so far than it was a few weeks ago. The cryptocurrency is once again trading above $20K and the longer this trend continues, the stronger this level will serve as support for a new rally.


Мы считаем, что возможное изменение политики ФРС действительно скажется на аппетитах инвесторов и ситуации с криптовалютами соответственно. Впрочем, подобного ещё предстоит дождаться. Ну а пока нас скорее всего ждёт очередное повышение ключевой ставки на 75 базисных пунктов.