How the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate survived the 3rd quarter, and what’s next

Bitcoin

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The Fed raised the rate, global inflation rose, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered a new stage of escalation – these events provoked a flight from risks to fall in most financial markets, but did not affect the price of bitcoin.

Bitcoin dynamics from 2011 to 2014

From 2011 to 2014, Bitcoin did not show any behavior patterns in the third quarter.

In 2011, the price collapsed by 74.29%. That year, the cryptocurrency updated its historical maximum in June, and the very next month, a rapid and protracted fall began.

In 2013 and 2014, bitcoin recovered. During these years, the rate has grown by about 100%.

In November 2013, the coin again updated its historical maximum, and in the third quarter of 2014, the correction was in full swing. During this period, Bitcoin fell by 43.85%.

Bitcoin dynamics in 2015 and 2018

There are no clear trends in this period either. In 2015, in the 3rd quarter, bitcoin rose by 8%, and in 2016 it fell by 9%. The third quarter of 2017 was marked by a large-scale growth of 136.4%. In 2018, during this period, the price rose by only 100%.

What is happening with bitcoin now

Not breaking with tradition, BTC has had mixed performance in Q3 in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The price fell 23% in 2019, rose 18% in 2020 and 25% in 2021.

However, in 2022, the bitcoin rate in the third quarter remained virtually unchanged. At the time of publication, the first cryptocurrency is 2% cheaper than at the beginning of July. Thus, we can say that in the third quarter the cryptocurrency market is not subject to any seasonal factors or patterns. There is no reason to believe that the price most often rises or falls during this period.

Factors that influenced the Bitcoin (BTC) rate this year

In the third quarter of 2022, a lot of events happened, both in the crypto industry and in traditional markets. In September, the Ethereum blockchain moved to a new consensus algorithm. The network update took place on September 15th.

In addition, there has been progress in the case of Ripple against the SEC: there is hope that the blockchain company will prevail in this protracted legal confrontation with the regulator. There was also bad news: Interpol put Terra founder Do Kwon on the wanted list, and the South Korean authorities froze all his assets.

In the traditional segment, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, provoking a massive drop in the cryptocurrency markets as part of risk aversion.

Partial mobilization has been announced in Russia amid the escalation of the military conflict with Ukraine. And, finally, August inflation in the US jumped to 8.3%, exceeding expectations.

These potentially unfavorable events did not significantly affect the dynamics of Bitcoin, which managed to maintain a neutral position.

Also, the price appears to be trading inside a falling wedge, which is considered a bullish pattern. A potential breakout of the upper boundary will cause BTC to strengthen in Q4 2022.

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