Analytics
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According to a new analytical report compiled by Glassnode and Ukuria On-Chain, the cryptocurrency bear market continues to plague short-term holders. Since August 14, Bitcoin (BTC) has lost 17.88% against the US dollar, BTC has fallen by about 9.3% in two weeks, and its price has decreased by 53.2% since the beginning of the year.
In addition, since reaching the maximum price recorded 11 months ago on November 10, 2021, BTC has fallen by 71.3%. Glassnode’s report, published on September 26, includes a chart called Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves, which shows that long-term BTC holders remain committed to coin holding strategies.
According to Glassnode’s Telegram channel, “assets 3 months old and older account for an all-time high of 86.3% of the total USD value contained in BTC supply.” The HODL Wave Chart of Bitcoin Realized Capitalization shown in the report shows the US dollar wealth held by specific age groups.
Given the pronounced restraint in spending by holders of “mature” bitcoins, the HODL trend is at historical highs, Glassnode experts clarify.
In a binary system consisting of only “young” and “mature” BTC, an increase in the number of “mature” BTC directly leads to an equivalent decrease in the number of “young” bitcoins.
As far as long-term holders are concerned, Glassnode’s report titled “The Great Detox” states the following:
Currently, the value of “mature” bitcoins is at its historical maximum due to the fact that the behavior of not spending is prevalent among investors, despite the extreme uncertainty of global markets.
Thus, almost all market activity is carried out by the same group of “young” BTC, constantly changing hands. A decrease in the number of “young” bitcoins being resold can lead to a reduction in supply, but only if market waves change.
Many believe in the long-term play with bitcoin:
After months of waiting, the underlying value of short-term holders of bitcoin has only fallen for the fourth time below the underlying value of long-term holders,” wrote analyst Will Clemente.
This indicates the process of reaching the bottom. The next crossover to watch out for is the bullish crossover of the short term above the long term.
A chart of the underlying value of bitcoin holders from Glassnode.
Michael Saylor of Microstrategy has spoken many times about BTC’s four-year cycles. On September 26, as the US dollar continued to overwhelm a large basket of fiat currencies, Saylor speculated on Bitcoin’s relationship with the US dollar over the past four years.
Over the past year, currencies have simply collapsed against the dollar. CAD -8%, CNY -9%, AUD -11%, ZAR -17%, KRW -18%, EUR -18%, PLN -21%, GBP -22%, JPY -23%, TRY -52%. The dollar itself has collapsed against Bitcoin by 67% over the past four years,” added the head of Microstrategy.
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