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Experts commented on the position of the founder of SkyBridge and assessed the likelihood of developments according to his forecast
The worst has already happened in the crypto market, says SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci. Bitcoin may still fall, but not below the low reached during this cycle – $ 17.5 thousand, and its fair market value is now about $ 40 thousand, the head of the American hedge fund said in an interview with MarketWatch.
Anthony Scaramucci, who served as director of communications for the US White House staff during the presidency of Donald Trump, has repeatedly spoken out in support of the cryptocurrency industry. He noted that despite the volatility of digital assets, this market has a good growth prospect in the next 4-5 years.
Back in April, hedge fund SkyBridge Capital planned to transfer the majority of the funds under its management to cryptocurrency. At that time, he already managed almost $3.5 billion in digital assets. However, in July, Skybridge Capital temporarily suspended withdrawals from its Legion Strategies Fund platform, which provides access to cryptocurrencies. According to Scaramucci, the fund is now in the process of selling part of the investment to obtain additional liquidity, which will allow the withdrawal of crypto assets from the platform to resume.
Experts commented on the economist’s opinion for RBC-Crypto and talked about what factors he does not take into account in his forecasts
New low not ruled out
In general, the main negative on the CFA market has already happened, says Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. He explained that the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, coupled with the internal problems of the industry – the collapse of Terra and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital – now practically does not excite investors, and these events no longer affect quotes.
However, the expert does not exclude that bitcoin may still fall below $17.5 thousand. The bottom has not yet been fully formed and there is a possibility of another decline below the lows of the year, the analyst is sure.
He noted that he considers the $40,000 level as a target for BTC until the end of the year, but cannot unequivocally call this price “fair”. Pershikov explained that there are a large number of BTC valuation models that could be considered optimal.
“Of course, with the price of bitcoin below $30,000, many mining players do not feel the best way. But there are a large number of “whales” that entered the market much lower than current levels, and who continue to wait for further growth in CFA prices. For them, the fair value may be different,” Pershikov explained.
He drew attention to the fact that such parameters for assessing the value of an asset as capitalization, volumes in futures and the spot market, changes in the shares of market participants and other aspects may give a slightly different fair value of BTC.
Anthony Scaramucci is forced to demonstrate optimism regarding the prospects of the crypto market, including due to the problems faced by SkyBridge Capital funds, said Aaron Chomsky, head of the investment department of ICB Fund.
The process of restructuring problematic industry players (Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, BlockFi) with the participation of FTX, Binance and venture capital firms reduced the degree of uncertainty that dominated the market, the expert says. According to him, the improved market conditions softened the wave of sales, which led to a more balanced state of the market.
But one should not count on the continuation of the July rally, the expert says. Indicators point to the continued low network activity of users, and the cryptocurrency market remains dependent on the monetary policy of the Fed, which still has a tendency to increase rates, he said.
According to calculations by analysts Grayscale and Glassnode based on market cycles in the past of bitcoin, a return to the growth path is possible only by the spring of next year, Chomsky warned. He added that by that time, one can also expect the Fed’s key rate to peak.
“Until this moment, Bitcoin can test the mentioned Scaramucci minimum of $17.5 thousand. The chances of this in the foreseeable future are still higher compared to the option of rising to $40 thousand,” the expert concluded.
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