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Bitcoin has not confirmed an upside consolidation breakout due to a wave of profit taking. The market has yet to wait for a significant influx of funds or new users, Glassnode noted.
On-chain metrics — number of active addresses/users, number of transactions, mempool workload, and fees paid — do not confirm an increase in the involvement of bitcoin investors or an expansion of their base.
Most tend to hodling – the daily number of transactions (14-day moving average) corresponds to the values of the 2018 bear market.
Data: Glassnode.
The subdued recovery in network activity confirms the continuation of record low fee revenues. As before, the share of such revenues in the total indicator of miners is just over 1%. This is partly due to the continued transition to more efficient SegWit transactions.
Such an environment does not prevent the hash rate from being kept in the all-time high range of 190-215 EH/s. This corridor is 20% higher than the previous historical maximum, which was formed shortly before the repressions of the Chinese authorities.
Miners earn around $207,000 per EH. This is 40% higher than during the capitulation of the 2018 bear market and 150% higher than immediately after the May 2020 halving.
Data: Glassnode.
Short-term investors (the coin holding period is no more than 155 days) account for 18.74% of the supply. In the context of consolidation in the range of $33,000-$42,000 and its subsequent breakthrough upwards, the share of “unprofitable” BTC has significantly decreased to 10.86% of the total number of available bitcoins. According to analysts, this reduced the chances of a panic selling wave.
Data: Glassnode.
Daily realized losses decreased from ~20,000 BTC in January to around ~8,300 BTC, while recorded profits increased to 13,300 BTC over the same period. Both values are characteristic of bear markets. The second indicator is not extreme, but it has a restraining effect on prices, the specialists emphasized.
Data: Glassnode.
By the end of last week, 58% of all volume-weighted transactions accounted for profit realization. This may signal a change in the dominant mood in the market and the prerequisites for excess demand over supply. Experts stressed that this is not happening due to weak price response.
Data: Glassnode.
Recall that the technical analyst and head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt predicted the return of bitcoin to the bull market stage in May 2024.
Earlier, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz warned that bitcoin would “take off again” as soon as the Fed takes a pause in tightening monetary policy.
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