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The seven-day Bitcoin rally ended with a correction, the main cryptocurrency spent most of the week in the fall. Bear speculators increased their shorts on RSI overbought signals, coinciding with the rise of BTC quotes to the resistance line built at the level of the beginning of this year, reinforced by the MA indicator (200).
At the end of the week, the Bitcoin rate managed to maintain the growing trend, remaining above MA(15), a sharp rebound from this line shows the high potential of the buying power of the bulls.
Despite the positive picture of technical analysis, the next week is filled with important fundamental events that can lead to the fall of Bitcoin.
First of all, we are talking about the Minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, revealing the votes of 18 bankers to raise the rate. The publication of the document on Wednesday could send stocks and cryptocurrencies down if comments and votes contain hints of a double rate hike.
Following the Fed, the ECB will publish its protocol on Thursday. If the European bank also advocates tightening policy, the cryptocurrency will face a two-day fall.
Fundamental negativity may come from China. In addition to the expanding lockdown in Shanghai due to the outbreak of Covid-19, which can significantly reduce the country’s GDP, news about Evergrande will come to the fore. The largest Chinese real estate developer caused the fall of cryptocurrencies in January when it suspended trading in shares before defaulting on obligations.
A similar situation could happen next week. If the Hong Kong exchange does not trade Evergrande shares, investors will return to the panic sale again. The problems of the largest company in the real estate sector have already become the cause of the global crisis of 2008.
An important event for the cryptocurrency market next week will be the conference of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), dedicated to the DeFi industry. The event kicks off tomorrow with a discussion of anonymity issues, circumvention of sanctions with the help of cryptocurrencies, the impact of high interest rates on deposits in stablecoins.
The heads of Polygon and Center will appear as industry representatives at the BIS conference. A number of insiders indicate that the discussion may surprise traders. For the first time, BIS officials want to discuss the positives of DeFi, including the participation of CBDCs (sovereign digital currencies) in lucrative liquidity pools.
Analysts remind that all of the above negativity can be canceled by any significant progress made in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The cessation of hostilities and peace initiatives will cause the entire financial market to rise.
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