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On November 16, Bitcoin fell by almost 13%, on December 3, it fell by 25%. The panic around BTC corrections and its subsequent consolidation gave way to various speculations about whether Bitcoin will rise above $ 55K or move below $ 45K.
There has been a sustained bullish divergence in recent months that indicated a massive year-end breakout. However, despite these bullish structures, BTC lost value. In this regard, it would be too optimistic to expect 100 thousand dollars by the end of the year. However, Bitcoin may still rebound.
The bearish decline in the price of BTC before comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appears to be abating, with another weekly candlestick close now expected to set the future trajectory.
The increase in the number of Bitcoin addresses that transact on various exchanges usually results in a clear bearish downturn.
The same was observed on November 9, when the rise in the number of BTC wallets over the past four months resulted in a bearish price movement.
However, as soon as this growth stabilizes, Bitcoin is likely to start a bullish move. In the short term, it looks like we still have a couple of bearish waves ahead.
At the same time, Chaikin Bitcoin’s monthly cash flow and its relationship with macrostructures is a fractal that can come into play soon enough.
A macro top in a Chaikin flow usually comes along with a cycle price top, which is preceded by some consolidation, as it is now.
The Exchange Supply Shock Ratio (a metric that measures the total supply of bitcoins on exchanges versus the total supply of bitcoins in circulation) is currently on track for its largest discrepancy since November 2020.
In June of this year, when this discrepancy formed, bitcoin rose 72%, in September bitcoin added 64%. Given the end of the year and the holiday season, BTC may still see growth.
However, in order for Bitcoin to begin to rise, it is important that Open Interest grows faster than the price. At the moment, open interest is relatively stable. If he shows noticeable movement, perhaps we will see a step up.
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