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On December 4, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted, which was probably triggered by the hunt for stops.
Long-term scenarios for BTC
Basic wave analysis suggests that BTC is in wave 5 (white) of a five-wave bullish impulse structure. In such a price structure, three waves are upward and two are downward, and they are considered corrective.
Thus, we are dealing with the final phase of growth, which will be followed by a significant correction. The entire upward movement began in December 2018, when the BTC rate was $ 3,122.
The subwavelength analysis results are shown in yellow. They demonstrate that Bitcoin is still in sub-wave 2 (yellow). Accordingly, if the assumptions are correct, the price still retains significant upside potential.
The only questionable point here is the trend line connecting waves 2 and 4. It was almost broken (red circle). According to Elliott Wave Theory, the trendline must remain intact in order to maintain the upward direction of the market.
This means that this analysis will remain in effect if BTC recovers above this trendline and consolidates above it.
A source: TradingView
The alternate wave scenario is more bearish. He suggests that BTC is still in wave 4 of the same five-wave bullish structure (white). In this case, Bitcoin will continue to decline in the direction of $ 30,000, and then will finally begin a new phase of growth towards historical highs. This will be the end of the bullish momentum.
The only question that arises here is the significant discrepancy between subwaves 2 and 4 (highlighted in the chart). Some alternation is assumed between them, but the fact that wave 4 is almost seven times longer than wave 2 is highly unusual.
Cryptocurrency trader @TheTradingHubb recently shared a BTC chart showing a price correction towards $ 42,000.
obviously the prior count was incorrect, certainly some external factors and panic at play here that’s making price action not as easy to read from a TA & Elliott Wave perspective.
Multiple options on the table.
2 main ones I’m watching for now… pic.twitter.com/j09HJZmTrA
— TradingHubb (@TheTradingHubb) December 3, 2021
After the publication of this tweet, Bitcoin managed to achieve this goal and rebound from it. However, given the length of the previous growth phase, it seems unlikely that the market has already fully completed the correction. Rather, it was only the first part of the correction and will be followed by another decline (black).
For the bullish wave scenario to remain in effect, BTC must hold above the $ 37,100 area (0.786 Fibo retracement level and horizontal support area).
If the price breaks below it will make the bearish scenario described above more likely.
#scenarios #price #bitcoin