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The largest Bitcoin holders by their actions indicate that the flagship asset can again to collapse in short time. This is reported by the analytical company CryptoQuant, citing its research. At the moment, the price of BTC is hovering around $ 48,805 with a market capitalization of $ 919,269,136,535. Over the past seven days, the coin rate has lost -14.7%, according to the online tracker CoinGecko.
In their analysis, CryptoQuant concluded that mainstream Bitcoin investors are not at risk when it comes to short-term price movement. This is evidenced by the metric of the coefficient of exchange whales. With its help, analysts measure the size of the largest inflows and outflows from exchanges in relation to the total inflows and outflows. Before Saturday’s fall in BTC to $ 41,900, the indicator climbed above its peak level of 0.95. Now he again approached this mark.
According to information from CryptoQuant, the ratio is still negative at the moment. From this we can conclude that it indicates bearish sentiment in the futures market. Analysts also note that the red trend is largely due to the sale of coins of one of the whales in excess of $ 500 million. Following this sale, there has been an active liquidation of BTC in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. In total, more than 1.3 billion long positions were liquidated in the market, moving from $ 51,000 to $ 42,000. Total open interest in the derivatives market also fell from $ 21.6 billion to $ 16.7 billion in less than an hour.
After another fall Will Bitcoin Bring Back Bullish Sentiment?
Despite these negative numbers, many analysts are confident that the bullish rally will return to the market. Back in November, leading analysts predicted BTC was valued at about $ 98,000, so the market sentiment was clearly optimistic. This sentiment was backed up by historical data, which showed that November and December were usually the months of growth in the market.
Despite the apparent lack of parabolic rallies, there is still a lot of evidence for a continuation of the bull market. This is consistent with the Bitcoin cycle lengthening hypothesis and the likelihood of a peak in 2022.
One of them was posted on Twitter yesterday by cryptocurrency analyst @ TechDev_52. He compares the technical aspects of the fractal structure of the current cycle and the two previous ones. In all cases, the interesting period is the achievement of the 1.618 Fibonacci external retracement macro resistance, measured from the peak of the previous bull market to the bottom of the next cycle.
What can help the flagship asset rise?
In all cases, we see multi-month consolidation below the 1.618 Fibonacci level. In the two previous cycles, it ended with a break above this resistance and a parabolic continuation of the upward movement towards the new ATH. At the same time, the correction always reached the area of the external Fibonacci retracement 1.272. This was followed by an impulsive breakout of the falling resistance line (yellow dashed line) and its confirmation (backtest). However, the most important indicator is the white horizontal line visible on all charts. It marks a swing high after a breakout, which was later retested at a bullish level in previous fractals. It happened just before the final breakthrough key macro-resistance Fibonacci level 1.618.
In his chart, the analyst points out structural deviations. The white line of the previous peak has been broken. In addition, the price failed to maintain the bull market support band formed by the weekly 20 MA and 21 EMA. Historically, this has often been a sign of a trend reversal. Despite these bearish signals, the analyst notes that the price bounced off the weekly 50 MA, which also served as support at the July lows. If, despite some deviations, the fractal structure persists, it is likely that this is the last fall in Bitcoin before the uptrend continues. However, for this to happen, the 1.618 Fibonacci level around $ 61,500 needs to be retraced and confirmed as support.
Author: Alexander Orlov, analyst at Freedman Сlub Crypto News
#Whale #Behavior #Bitcoin #Fall